The future of aquaculture in 
Indonesia: A transformation  
toward increased sustainability
To combat current high levels of malnutrition and stunting, the Indonesian government has set ambitious 
targets for aquaculture growth up to 2030. Fish already fundamentally contributes to the well-being of 
Indonesians by offering an affordable source of nutritious animal protein. However, to reach these targets, 
production will have to more than triple. Along with the impacts of climate change, this is expected to 
reduce Indonesia’s capture fisheries landings, which currently are the main source of seafood for human 
consumption as well as a source for fishmeal and fish oil.
However, meeting the production targets will come at a cost for the environment. Research has shown 
that widespread negative environmental consequences will result from reaching the proposed production 
targets using current farming practices. Consequently, more sustainable farming practices are needed 
that do not jeopardize the function of Indonesia’s valuable coastal ecosystem. The research looked at 
potential aquaculture interventions and innovations across several impact categories that would allow the 
aquaculture sector to grow without compromising the environment (Figure 1).
Interventions
Farm performance data collected during the past few years has shown a yield gap among Indonesian 
farmers. Feed conversion ratios (FCRs) and productivity were often far from optimal and compared 
unfavorably with many neighboring countries. Consequently, we shortlisted three readily available and 
affordable interventions (AqI) that could greatly improve the performance of the Indonesian aquaculture 
sector (AqI1–3). We also included three more comprehensive reforms that would require changes in 
national and international demands (AqI4–6):
AqI1. Lower FCRs for whiteleg shrimp, carp and tilapia by 20 percent by using better quality feeds, improved 
strains, better quality seed and better farming practices.
AqI2. Sustainably intensify milkfish and Asian tiger shrimp polyculture (Tambak) systems within existing 
ponds using commercial feeds.
AqI3. Shift grouper farms away from using low-price whole fish as feed toward pelleted feed.
AqI4. Transition toward renewable electricity nationwide, driven by international pressure.
AqI5. Shift demand from shrimp toward omnivorous finfish species.
AqI6. Reduce food waste and increase use of by-products.
Photo Credit: Cecily Layzell/WorldFish
Java
45% 42% 53% 21% 47%
Maluku-Papua
15%
Sumatra
31% 40% 61% 35% Kalimantan Sulawesi
13% 44% 13% 33%
35% 64% 41%
947,000 metric tons 623,000 metric tons 575,000 metric tons 544,000 metric tons
Tilapia Shrimp Milksh Clarias catsh
Brackish-water Cages Freshwater
Brackish-water ponds (100%) (11%) ponds (89%)
Floating cage Freshwater ponds (100%)
nets (23%) ponds (77%)
445,000 metric tons 411,000 metric tons 19,000 metric tons 7,000 metric tons
Carp Pangasius catsh Grouper Sea bass/Sea
perch/Barramundi
Cages Freshwater Cages Freshwater Cages Cages
(10%) ponds (90%) (11%) ponds (89%) (100%) (100%)
Forest cover Seagrass beds Coral reef Mangrove forests
Land concessions Fair Unknown Good Fair Good Fair
Forest Poor Poor Unknown Poor Unknown
Figure 1. Current aquaculture production and estimates of their contribution towards each product group 
across the Indonesian archipelago and ecological status.
Innovations
In combination with these interventions, more innovative approaches need to be embraced. For example, 
several novel feed ingredients have been developed over the past decade. Among these are single-cell 
proteins, microalgae and macroalgae, all of which have great potential for upscaling in Indonesia and could 
enable the aquaculture sector to lower its dependence on wild fish for feed and raw material imports.
Innovative farming techniques such as offshore aquaculture would allow expansion of mariculture without 
competing for coastal space and ecosystem services. However, such systems would still depend on investment in 
infrastructure and feed resources, and increased farming costs may only allow for targeting higher priced species.
Fish quantity
5
4
Wild fish use Global warming
3
2
1
Fossil energy use 0 Acidification
Freshwater use Eutrophication
Land occupation
Legend
Business-as-usual AqI1-4: Renewable energy
AqI1: 20% lower FCR for whiteleg shrimp, carp and tilapia AqI1-5: Shift to omnivorous species
AqI1-2: BMP for milkfish and tigershrimp polyculture, with an FCR that uses AqI1-6: Reduce food waste
  half the area
AqI1-3: Grouper pellets (FCR 2)
Figure 2. Cumulative mitigation potential for Indonesian aquaculture using six interventions.
Spatial planning
Greenhouse gas emissions from the conversion of mangrove forestation to aquaculture ponds are larger 
than from farming itself. This highlights the need for spatial planning to better account for ecological hot 
spots, including not only mangroves but also tropical forests and seagrass beds.
Conclusions
We show that interventions and innovations could likely allow Indonesia’s aquaculture output to double 
by 2030 within its current environmental footprint. The main challenge for achieving this outcome will be 
to change farmer practices across the country and perceptions throughout value chains. Many farmers, 
however, do not have access to the capital, resources or extension services needed to implement these 
changes. Moreover, nationwide measures to increase renewable energy and reduce food waste will be 
essential for meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
Production targets will, in the meantime, need to be revised, as earlier research shows that these will be 
physically impossible to meet in terms of freshwater consumption and land occupation. Emphasis needs to 
shift away from species aimed primarily for export, as these usually cause more environmental impacts, are 
more resource demanding, and may impair nutritional security. Domestically consumed species should be 
improved by development of better genetic strains, innovative feeds and farming practices. Processing and 
market diversification, including deboned milkfish and other semi-finished food products, will be important 
for value-adding. This would also centralize the availability of by-products, which then could be reduced for 
other uses, such as fishmeal.
The Indonesian aquaculture industry faces large challenges but also offers potential. Decision-makers 
need to carefully navigate the different tradeoffs between short-term monetary gains and long-term 
environmental destruction. Our modeling provides some insight into where resources are best invested 
and the scale of the resources needed. More elaborate models that offer more plasticity and account for 
interactions with other sectors are, however, recommended.
Key references
Cheung WWL, Lam VWY and Sarmiento JL et al. 2010. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch 
potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biololgy 16:24–35. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-
2486.2009.01995.x
Henriksson PJG, Mohan CV and Phillips MJ. 2017a. Evaluation of different aquaculture feed ingredients in 
Indonesia using life cycle assessment. Indonesian Journal of Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainability 1:13–21.
Henriksson PJG, Tran N and Mohan CV et al. 2017b. Indonesian aquaculture futures: Evaluating 
environmental and socioeconomic potentials and limitations. Journal of Cleaner Production 162:1482–90. 
doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.133
Tran N, Rodriguez U-P and Chan CY et al. 2017. Indonesian aquaculture futures: An analysis of fish supply 
and demand in Indonesia to 2030 and role of aquaculture using the AsiaFish model. Marine Policy. doi: 
10.1016/j.marpol.2017.02.002
Citation
This publication should be cited as: Henriksson PJG, Banks LK, Suri S, Pratiwi TY, Ahmad Fatan N and Troell M. 2019. The future of aquaculture in 
Indonesia: A transformation toward increased sustainability. Penang, Malaysia: WorldFish. Policy Brief: 2019-14.
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