ORIGINAL RESEARCH
published: 07 June 2021
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2021.677069
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 1 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069
Edited by:
Emmanuel Donkor,
Humboldt University of
Berlin, Germany
Reviewed by:
Enoch Bessah,
Kwame Nkrumah University of
Science and Technology, Ghana
Henry Jordaan,
University of the Free State,
South Africa
Dennis Olumeh,
Humboldt University of
Berlin, Germany
*Correspondence:
Peerzadi Rumana Hossain
p.hossain@cgiar.org
Specialty section:
This article was submitted to
Climate-Smart Food Systems,
a section of the journal
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Received: 07 March 2021
Accepted: 23 April 2021
Published: 07 June 2021
Citation:
Hossain PR, Amjath-Babu TS,
Krupnik TJ, Braun M, Mohammed EY
and Phillips M (2021) Developing
Climate Information Services for
Aquaculture in Bangladesh: A
Decision Framework for Managing
Temperature and Rainfall
Variability-Induced Risks.
Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 5:677069.
doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2021.677069
Developing Climate Information
Services for Aquaculture in
Bangladesh: A Decision Framework
for Managing Temperature and
Rainfall Variability-Induced Risks
Peerzadi Rumana Hossain 1*, T. S. Amjath-Babu 2, Timothy J. Krupnik 2, Melody Braun 3,
Essam Yassin Mohammed 4 and Michael Phillips 4
1WorldFish, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh,
3 International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States, 4WorldFish,
Penang, Malaysia
Climate information services (CIS) are increasingly in demand to assist farmers in
managing risks associated with climate variability and extremes experienced in food
production. However, there are significant gaps in the availability and accessibility
of these services, especially in aquatic food production in developing countries. In
response, this study aims to generate the background knowledge for developing
climate information and decision support services tailored for aquaculture farmers in
Bangladesh. We surveyed 800 fish-farming households, interviewed 30 key informants,
and conducted a systematic literature review to identify climate-sensitive operations
and management decisions in aquaculture and to document fish-farmers’ awareness
of the relationships between climate variability and aquatic food production systems. We
also sought to identify the lead time and communication method(s) needed to deploy
forecasts effectively and prepare aquaculture farmers to act in response to the forecasts.
A fish-farming activity calendar was developed that identified high temperature, cold
spell, heavy rainfall, and dry spell events as key climatic phenomena affecting year-
round aquaculture operations, including pond preparation and maintenance, fingerling
stocking, grow-out management, and harvesting. We also identified five climate-sensitive
management decision points and 26 potential advisories in line with specific climate
variability to manage induced risks in the day-to-day operations of fish farmers. Finally,
the research team developed a decision framework based on the temperature and
rainfall thresholds for the grow-out phase of four widely cultivated and economically
important fish species in Bangladesh. This innovative decision support approach is to
our knowledge the very first endeavor to develop CIS using species-specific temperature
and rainfall thresholds to reduce climate risks and ensure resilience capacity for South
Asian aquaculture system.
Keywords: climate, variability, risks, aquaculture, services, threshold, fish-farmers
Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
INTRODUCTION
Bangladesh is one of the most suitable countries for aquatic food
production in the world, given its large inland freshwater (45,000
km2) and marine water bodies (Ghose, 2014; Shamsuzzaman
et al., 2017). It is ranked 3rd in inland fisheries, 5th in
aquaculture, and 11th in marine fish production globally (Sarder,
2020). The prominence of aquatic food in the country is
reflected in the diet (accounting for 60% of animal protein
intake), livelihood opportunities (employing more than 10% of
the country’s population through fishing, aquaculture, handling,
and processing), and economy (contributing about 5% to the
country’s GDP) (Belton et al., 2014; Bogard et al., 2015; BFTI,
2016; MoF, 2020). However, the sustainability of aquaculture and
capture fisheries is increasingly challenged by climatic stresses.
The country has been identified as the second most climatically
vulnerable country in Asia for freshwater aquaculture and is
marked as having the lowest adaptive capacity for brackish water
production due to an expected increase in climate variability and
frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change
(Barange et al., 2018). These climate stresses impact aquatic food
production in multiple ways, such as high water temperatures
exceeding the physiological tolerance level of fish species, sudden
temperature fluctuations leading to fish mortality, and erratic or
intense rainfall events causing harvest losses, which are among
the challenges facing aquatic food production systems.
Bangladesh’s monthly maximum temperatures remain
generally higher (>34◦C) in April, May, and June, while monthly
minimum temperatures are lower (<20◦C) in December,
January, and February (Khatun et al., 2016). Besides, the
number of extreme hot days, i.e., maximum temperature of
>40◦C, occurs during April and May. The number of days
with maximum temperature ranging from 30 to 36◦C per
year varies between 109 and 175 days in different parts of the
country. Conversely, suitable temperature for fish farming
in Bangladesh ranges from 26 to 32◦C (Roy et al., 2019). In
addition to temperature stress, rainfall variability also exerts
stress in aquatic food production. An increasing number of
dry spells are recorded in February, April, May, August, and
November, while extreme rainfall events are increasing in July,
September, and October (Khatun et al., 2016; Hossain, 2018).
Temperature (both maximum and minimum) and rainfall
variability pose significant risks for aquatic farming activities
and require modified management decisions to reduce the risks.
Approximately 25% of loss and damage occurred in agriculture,
fisheries, and aquaculture sector during the period of 2003–2013
in developing countries can be attributed to climate related
impacts (Shelton, 2014). In Bangladesh, a single extreme weather
event, such as cyclone “SIDR” caused damages worth USD 6.71
million in aquatic food systems by washing away fish, shrimp,
and fingerlings and by damaging infrastructure, gears, and
equipment (GoB, 2008). Similarly, a single flood event in 2020
caused USD 5 million worth of loss to the fish farms through
infrastructural damage and washing away fishes and fingerlings
(Saha, 2020). So, it is evident that climate variability and extreme
climatic phenomena are significantly affecting the aquatic food
production in Bangladesh.
With high-quality climate information and skillful forecasts
tailored to the needs of the fisheries or aquaculture sectors,
fish farmers could be empowered to adapt and manage stresses
(WorldFish, 2020) and, hence, offset the climate impacts. There
is a need for a deep understanding of the sensitivity of different
aquaculture operations to specific climatic variables to ensure
access to appropriate climate information services (CIS) enabling
decision-makers to adapt their decisions. Identification of
climate-sensitive aquaculture operations and portfolio-adaptive
decisions are, therefore, prerequisite to the development of CIS
for aquaculture.
Moreover, 194 countries signed the Paris Agreement for
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2015 to
transform their development trajectories through adaptation
and mitigation efforts (Kalikoski et al., 2018). However, the
NDC submissions did not specify mechanisms that could be
deployed to support the most vulnerable and poor to deal with
climate extremes. In particular, fisheries and aquaculture were
inadequately considered. In response to these gaps, there is a
considerable scope to integrate and mainstream CIS in national
plans, policies, and strategies as amechanism aiding in enhancing
climate resilience. Many countries have begun implementing CIS
for agriculture to address climatic risks (Dayamba et al., 2018;
Vaughan et al., 2019; Cheng et al., 2020) and meet adaptation
needs; however, the application of CIS is a newly emerging
field in the aquaculture sector (WorldFish, 2020). Given the
potential of CIS in offsetting climate risks to a significant extent
(Hansen et al., 2019; Vaughan et al., 2019), it can potentially
act as a mechanism to increase investments in aquaculture by
small farmers.
Considering the extensive aquatic resources of Bangladesh,
the climate impacts on aquaculture production, the
socioeconomic vulnerability of small-scale fish producers,
and the current lack of CIS for aquaculture in Bangladesh, this
study aims to develop a timely, reliable, and contextualized
decision support framework to assist small-scale fish farmers
in managing climate risks. To develop this framework, we
analyzed three tiers of information: field surveys, key informant
interviews, and a literature review. We investigated aquaculture
management information relevant to CIS, fish producers’
knowledge on the effects of climate variability on different
aquaculture operations, and their perceptions on the use of CIS.
We then mapped out climate-sensitive aquaculture operations
and management decisions for climatic variables (and their
variability) that could benefit small-scale fish farmers. Finally,
we identified temperature and rainfall thresholds for four widely
cultivated and economically important fish species to formulate
advisories for reducing associated risks.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
As part of the three-step investigative procedure,
we first designed an aquaculture survey module
(Supplementary Material 1). This module is based on a
combination of field level observation (on fish-farming practices,
daily management operations, current demand and access to
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 1 | Study sites.
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
TABLE 1 | Demographic status of fish-farming households of the four studied
districts.
Category Characteristic Percentage of the respondents
Barisal Patuakhali Khulna Sylhet
Gender Male 97 98 93 95
Female 3 2 8 5
Age >18 68 67 76 64
13–18 21 21 18 23
<13 11 13 7 13
Marital status Married 69 70 78 68
Unmarried 31 30 22 32
Education Illiterate 28 9 19 7
Primary 41 54 39 44
Secondary 23 27 25 33
Higher secondary 8 10 12 8
Graduate 0 0 5 9
Family type Joint 70 65 78 46
Nuclear 30 35 22 54
Family size Small (≤5) 55 62 68 36
Big (>5) 45 38 32 64
CIS) and desk study to collect a wide range of information
from small-scale fish producers (such as demographics,
species selection and management information, perceptions of
climate impacts on aquaculture, and potential use of CIS). The
aquaculture module was deployed in four districts (Figure 1)
with aquaculture farming activities of small-scale fish farmers.
Three districts (Khulna, Barisal, and Patuakhali) from the south-
west coastal region and one district (Sylhet) from the north-east
haor region were selected, the latter being a low-elevation,
landscape with a saucer-shaped depression that hosts a wetland-
based ecosystem. The districts were selected based on their
contribution to cultured fish production in Bangladesh and their
exposure to climate risks, particularly temperature and rainfall
variability. Four upazilas (subdistricts) were selected from the
chosen districts, within a 15- to 25-km radius of the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department’s (BMD) weather observational
stations that provided data for this study. In total, 800 small-scale
fish-farming households who are directly involved in fish-
farming activities have been surveyed using stratified random
sampling (Howell et al., 2020) from October 2019 to December
2019, which covered 18 unions (smallest administrative units) of
the selected upazilas (Supplementary Material 2).
Next, we interviewed 30 key informants (selected based
on their work experience and expertise relevant to climate
impacts on aquaculture research and development) from various
government and non-government organizations, universities,
and research institutes, purposefully to gather information on
the key weather scale impacts affecting aquaculture practices
and climate-sensitive aquaculture operations. In addition, the
aquaculture experts identified management decisions relevant to
the identified climate-sensitive aquaculture operations, critical
temperature and rainfall thresholds for widely cultured and
economically important fish species in the region, and the
expected outcomes from aquaculture CIS.
Lastly, we reviewed the available literature using the ISI-
Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Google Search. The
review focused on scientific validation of growth phase-specific
conditions (temperature and rainfall thresholds) and potential
adaptive decisions (to offset the impacts of adverse climatic
conditions) identified from the interviews with aquaculture
farmers and experts in order to develop useful climate
advisories for the key economically important species in
Bangladesh. Key search terms used were critical temperature,
critical temperature thresholds, heat stress, thermal stress,
high-temperature thresholds, low-temperature thresholds, cold
spell, heavy rain thresholds, dry spell, drought, and low-rain
thresholds. We also used the names of the fish species (both
local and scientific) as search terms: rohu (Labeo rohita),
tilapia (Oreochromis nilotica), black tiger shrimp (Peneaus
monodon), and freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii).
The resulting articles were first filtered reading the title followed
by the abstract. Final scrutinizing considered the grow-out phase
and thresholds (Supplementary Material 3), which we used to
cross-check with the thresholds identified by the experts during
the key informant interviews. As the literature review and key
informant interviews produced only qualitative information on
rainfall thresholds, like very heavy rain, heavy rain, low rain,
or dry spell, we collected quantitative information on rainfall
thresholds for heavy, very heavy, and low rain from BMD.
Using a systematic and logical combination of three sets
of information (fish producers’ response, expert opinion, and
the literature review), we developed the aquaculture decision
framework considering four widely cultured and economically
important fish species sensitive to temperature and rainfall
variabilities (Appendix A). The timeline considered for the
decision framework is the grow-out phase of the selected
fish species identified during the fish-farmer survey, which
was also cross-checked during the key informant interviews.
Climatic thresholds for the selected fish species were identified
from expert opinion and the literature review considering the
least standard deviation of the mean thresholds. The decision
points were identified considering both the fish-farmers’ and
key informants’ responses on climate-sensitive aquaculture
operations for the grow-out phase of the selected species. Finally,
the advisories were developed based on the list of climate-
sensitive management decisions identified by the fish farmers as
well as the key informants in line with specific decision points and
climatic variables.Where thresholds were crossed, recommended
actions were developed that could be supplied to fish farmers with
the goal of reducing climate risks and enhancing the resilience of
the small-scale fish farmers.
RESULTS
Demographics of the Fish Farmers and an
Overview of Fish-Farming Practices
Almost all fish farmers (>90%) surveyed were male, and 50–
70%were literate with primary (8 years) and secondary education
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 2 | Overview of fish-farming practice in the studied regions by percent of respondents.
(2 years). The family type is mostly joint, and family size tends
to be small, except in Sylhet (Table 1). Aquaculture systems
are dominated by rice fish in Barisal and Patuakhali and by
fish polyculture in Sylhet and Khulna (Figure 2A), typically
extensive farming types (<1.5 MT/ha production) across the
studied districts (Figure 2B). Production takes place on both
owned (Figure 2C) and leased farmland (Figure 2D) and on
<1 ha. However, the use of leased farmland is relatively less
common than owned. Fishpond area, pond depth, pond type,
and ownership within these farming systems do not vary
significantly across the districts (Figure 3). Between 67 and 100%
of fish farmers have ponds larger than 0.03 ha (Figure 3A),
mostly shallow (Figure 3B), perennial (Figure 3C), and owned
(Figure 3D). Thirty to 65% of farmers surveyed hadmore than 10
years of experience in fish production (Figure 4A); however, 63–
91% of farmers acknowledged that they had no formal training in
aquaculture (Figure 4B).
Farmers’ Fish-Crop Selection and
Management Information in 2018
Carps (37–46%) and tilapia (38–45%) are the most widely
cultured fish species across the study regions followed
by freshwater prawn (1–33%) (Figure 5A). The greatest
productivity, however, comes from pangasius (Pangasius
pangasius) followed by carps and tilapia (Figure 5B). In
addition, farmers have identified four key management
interventions applied during the study year as well as 14
different climatic and non-climatic factors that influence their
management decision-making process (Table 2). The calendar
also shows that fish-farming operations usually (76–100%)
start in April with pond preparation and end in December
with harvesting. Fingerling collection, stocking, and grow-
out management activities typically begin in April–May and
continue up to September–October. Both climatic (such as
the first monsoon/seasonal rain, heavy rain, floods, water
quality and availability, high/low temperatures, and drought)
and non-climatic factors (such as credit availability, tradition,
disease outbreaks, fingerling prices and availability) influence
the identified fish-farming operations. However, grow-out
management operations, including feeding, fertilization, and
pest and disease control, are mainly timed in relation to climatic
factors (Table 2).
Knowledge of Fish Farmers on the Impacts
of Climate Variability and Use of Climate
Information for Aquaculture
Across the study districts, most of the fish farmers responded
that they do not face considerable difficulties in fish production
in relation to a particular climate variability (Figure 6). This
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 3 | Overview of fishpond information in the studied regions by percent of respondents.
FIGURE 4 | Overview of fish-farmer type in the studied regions by percent of respondents.
result also indicates low awareness among farmers of indirect
weather impacts on water quality and, hence, fish productivity.
A similar result of farmers’ low awareness of climate impacts
on different coastal systems was reported by Hossain et al.
(2018). However, those who responded positively identified
high temperature, heavy rainfalls, and dry and cold spells
as impacting climatic variables. Fish producers from Barisal
(94%), Patuakhali (93%), and Khulna districts (50%) recognized
high temperatures as the most challenging weather condition
affecting their farms, while respondents from Sylhet suggested
that heavy rainfalls and cold spells (both 33%, respectively) were
most problematic. Respondents also identified five aquaculture
management operations, namely pond preparation, fingerling
collection and stocking, feeding, provision of inputs, and
harvesting, which are sensitive to climate and weather variability
(Figure 6). Conversely, information on the farmers’ use of
weather forecasts and climatic information suggested that 54–
85% of the respondents do not currently use any climate
information to assist in any aquaculture management operations
(Figure 7). Those that use weather forecasts emphasized using
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 5 | Fish species cultivated and corresponding production levels in 2018.
them to prepare for heavy rainfalls (44–58%) and high
temperatures (33–42%). The sources of this information are
largely television and radio (Figure 7).
Responses of Fish Farmers on
Climate-Sensitive Aquaculture Operations
and Management Decisions
Feed management was recognized as the most sensitive part
of aquaculture management conditioned by extreme weather
events including heavy rainfalls (13–43%), dry spells (14–
28%), high temperatures (30–44%), and cold spells (25–50%).
Accordingly, farmers indicated that they respond to these
conditions by halting fish feeding during heavy rain and
by reducing feeding during high temperatures and both dry
and cold spells (Figure 8). Respondents also distinguished
fingerling collection and stocking as particularly sensitive to
heavy rainfalls (38–47%), high temperatures (9–29%), and
cold spells (13–27%). The primary action taken by farmers
was to avoid collecting or stocking fingerlings during these
conditions. Applying input materials (like fertilizer application,
aqua-medicine use, managing irrigation, using aerator, etc.) is
another sensitive part of aquaculture operations affected by
all the identified climate variabilities. Respondents, therefore,
prescribed decisions to stop using fertilizer and aqua-medicine
during heavy rains, reduce fertilizer application, and manage
irrigation during dry spells. Farmers also suggested that using
a water aerator and adding water to adjust pond water level
are common actions for responding to high temperatures.
Conversely, no management conditions were identified for cold
spells. Moreover, while pond preparation and harvesting were
also identified as operations that are sensitive to temperature and
rainfall variabilities, no management modifications were cited by
farmers as common practices.
Lead Times and Preferred Platforms for
CIS
Across the study districts, most of the fish producers (41–49%)
preferred having at least a 7-day lead time to use forecasts from
a CIS, followed by 15 days (23–31%) and 5 days (14–22%). A
few were interested in having a monthly (1–5%) or seasonal (6–
8%) service (Figure 9A). Regarding the CIS platform, almost all
the respondents (80–97%) preferred direct voice call as their first
preference; however, the second preference was for TV (with up
to 43% farmers) (Figure 9B).
Key Informants’ Responses on
Climate-Sensitive Aquaculture Operations
and Management Decisions
Similar to farmers, key informants identified high temperatures,
cold and dry spells, and heavy rains as key weather phenomena
that could affect different aquaculture operations, particularly
water quality management, feeding, fingerling stocking,
and harvesting (Table 3). According to key informants,
high temperature plays a substantial role in water quality
management, decreasing water pH (acidic/basic water), causing
an imbalance in dissolved O2 (oxygen) and CO2 (carbon
dioxide), and accelerating the generation of NH3 (ammonia) and
H2S (hydrogen Sulfide) gas. These changes in pond water quality
parameters can result in fish physiological stress, including
reduced digestion capacity and food intake, both of which can
reduce survival rate. To manage these challenges, the application
of agricultural lime tends to be recommended. In addition,
disinfectants, using a horra (a locally made tool for raking the
pond bottom), zeolite, adding water, and supplying artificial O2
through aeration can help in maintaining water quality. Reduced
feeding or stopping feeding in the afternoon and providing
a vitamin C supplement in the morning are also prescribed
for good fish growth during periods of high temperatures.
In addition, respondents suggested that stocking fingerlings
during high temperatures in the afternoon should be avoided
to reduce shock. Conversely, they suggested that cold spells
can increase the pH and cause imbalances in dissolved O2 and
CO2, which can result in longer residence times at shallow
depths and reduced food intake. In this situation, key informants
suggested restricting the use of lime, implementing irrigation,
providing O2 using either an aerator or oxygen-promoting
aqua-medicines, reducing feeding, and if needed encouraging
partial harvesting to reduce the density of the fish stock. During
heavy rainfalls, the levels of dissolved O2 and pH can decline.
Combined with a sudden drop in temperature, this can result
in reduced food intake and potential mortality. To reduce
these risks, aeration is beneficial for increasing the supply of
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TABLE 2 | Fish-crop calendar in study districts considering factors identified by farmers as contributing to operational and management decisions in the 2018 production season.
Operations
Months Fish-crop calendar Months
FactorsJanuary February March April May June July August September October November Dececmber
Pond preparation (PP) First monsoon rain
Water availability
Seasonal rainfall
Credit availability
Fingerling collection and stocking
(FS)
Fingerling price
Seed availability
Credit availability
Water availability
Grow-out management (GM) like
feeding, inputs use, pond water
refilling, etc.
Water quality
Disease outbreak
Heavy rain
Drought
Partial/full harvest (HH) Flood
Traditional
Price
Heavy rain
Respondents % Operations
PP FS GM HH
0–25
26–50
51–75
76–100
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 6 | Fish-farmers’ responses on difficulties encountered in aquaculture resulting from perceived climatic variability.
FIGURE 7 | Current extent of weather forecasts used by fish producers in study districts.
dissolved O2 as well as applying lime after a heavy rainfall.
An extremely heavy rain can result in pond flooding and also
fish stocks escaping from enclosures. Key informants therefore
suggested that farmers heighten pond banks and use nets to
protect against losses. Conversely, dry spells were cited as
conditions that reduce water availability because of evaporation
from high temperatures, which can also affect feeding behavior
and, under some circumstances, create ideal conditions for a
disease outbreak. Respondents suggested that to manage these
challenges, farmers can add water to ponds from ground water
using pumps, or they can delay or reduce fingerling stocking.
Farmers can also consider partially harvesting their ponds to
reducing stock density while also adjusting feed supply.
Water Temperature and Rainfall Thresholds
During the Grow-Out Phase for the Most
Widely Cultured and Economically
Important Fish Species in Bangladesh
Nile tilapia, rohu, freshwater prawn, and black tiger shrimp are
themost widely cultured and economically important fish species
for aquaculture in the study districts, as well as in Bangladesh as
a whole (Table 4). Lower temperature (pond water) thresholds
for tilapia and rohu were identified by key informants as between
20 and 22◦C with standard deviation (SD) of 0.4 and 0.6, while
the upper temperature threshold was between 32 and 30◦C
with SD of 0.5 and 0.7, respectively. For freshwater prawn and
black tiger shrimp, similar upper and lower thresholds were
identified as between 25 and 30◦C with SD of 0.5 and 0.6.
Conversely, upper temperature thresholds for tilapia and rohu
were both identified as 31◦C from the literature with SD of 2.9
and 2.4, while the lower limit was between 23 and 22◦C with
SD of 4.7 and 3.8, respectively. For freshwater prawn and black
tiger shrimp, similar upper and lower thresholds were identified
as between 26 and 33◦C from the literature with SD of 4.1
and 1.8, correspondingly. Rainfall thresholds and the length of
rainfall cessation provided by the meteorological experts from
BMD were similar for all the species to identify dry spells as
well as heavy and very heavy rainfalls (Table 4). When rain
is <3mm for 5 consecutive days during the monsoon season
(June–September) and <1mm for 5 consecutive days during
the pre-monsoon (March–May) and post-monsoon (October–
November) seasons, experts suggest that fish production could
be negatively affected. Lastly, rainfall>44 mm/day was identified
as heavy, while >88 mm/day was identified as the threshold for
very heavy rain.
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 8 | Climate sensitive aquaculture operations identified by farmers in relation to specific types of weather events and consequent management decisions.
Framework for Making
Climate-Responsive Decisions Based on
Temperature and Rainfall Thresholds
Based on the temperature and rainfall thresholds (with the lowest
SD), we developed two different decision frameworks for the
four most widely cultivated and economically important fish
species in Bangladesh along with appropriate stock management
responses (Figures 10, 11). As the intended CIS is to support
smallholder fish farmers in managing their ponds and in
aquaculture operations, a timeline is selected for the appropriate
months of the grow-out phase of each species for both decision
frameworks. For tilapia and rohu, the grow-out phase starts in
May and ends in November, while for bagda (saltwater shrimp),
it is from March to June, and for golda (freshwater prawn), from
July to November. The conditions for the temperature decision
framework are themaximum (Tmax) andminimum temperature
(Tmin) thresholds of each species identified in Table 4. When
the temperature goes above or below the critical limits of a
particular species, the decision framework is triggered to the
relevant decision points (such as water quality, feeding, and
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 9 | Preferred lead times to make decisions to change management practices and preferred platforms for climate information services delivery.
TABLE 3 | Potential impacts of climate variability on aquaculture operations, potential management responses, and their intended effects, as described by the key
informants.
Climatic variability Climate-sensitive
aquaculture
operations
Potential impacts Climate-sensitive management decisions Expected outcomes
High temperature Pond water quality
management
Increased bacterial
decomposition and decreased
pH level
Lime application Improved pond water quality
Reduced risk of fish disease
outbreak
Reduced stress on fish
physiology
Optimal growth of fish stock
Reduced mortality rate
Enhanced production
Reduced climate-induced losses
Reduced climate-induced risks
Good profit
Availability of healthy and
nutritious fish
Ensured nutrition security
Ensured food security
Ensured sustainability of
aquaculture
Ensured livelihood security
Low dissolved oxygen
Imbalance between dissolved O2
and CO2 levels
Pond irrigation
Aerator or any oxygen promoter
aqua-medicine use
Increase in NH3 and H2S gas Horra pulling and zeolite application
Feeding Reduced digestion capacity
Less food intake
Reduced feeding
Apply nutritious food having vitamin C
supplement during morning time
Fingerling stocking Low survival rate Avoid fingerling stocking during noon time
Cold spells Pond water quality
management
Increased pH level Restrict lime application
Imbalance between dissolved O2
and CO2 level
Pond irrigation to increase water depth
Aeration to enhance dissolved oxygen in water
Oxygen enhancing aqua-medicine
Feeding Less food intake Reduce feeding
Harvesting Abnormal behavior of fish (e.g.,
floating near the water surface)
Reduce fish stock density through partial
harvesting
Heavy rain Pond water quality
management
Decreased dissolve O2 level
Decreased pH level
Sudden temperature drop
Artificial oxygen supply using aerator or oxygen
enhancing aqua-medicine
Lime application after the rain
Feeding No food intake Stop feeding
Fingerling stocking High mortality rate Stop fingerling stocking
Harvesting Flooding
Fish escape
Heighten the pond banks
Protect the fish to escape using nets
Dry spells Fingerling stocking Lack of availability of surface
water
Delayed stocking
Less production
Manage ground water supply using pumps
Limit fingerling stocking
Pond water quality
management
Sudden temperature rise
Disease outbreak
Manage ground water supply using pumps
Increase pond depth
Reduce fish stock density
Partial harvesting
Feeding Less food intake Reduce feeding
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 11 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069
Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
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harvesting). It suggests modifications in management practices
that can be presented to farmers as part of a CIS (Figure 10). On
the other hand, the conditions for the rainfall decision framework
include thresholds for very heavy rain, heavy rain, and dry spell.
Thresholds do not differ by species during their grow-out phase
and are, hence, applicable across the studied species. When
rainfall forecasts exceed a threshold, the decision framework
triggers the advice of appropriate management decisions for
protective measures, feeding, harvesting, and water quality and
availability (Figure 11).
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
As highlighted in the Introduction, no CIS system is currently
available for aquaculture in South Asian countries that provides
actionable species-specific advisories for aquatic farmers based
on weather forecasts and thresholds. The reason, rooted in
a global lack of extensive research or pilots on climate
services for aquaculture, is the absence of a fish species-
specific climatic threshold and climate-sensitive management
information that can lead to effective advisories and, thus, reduce
climate variability-induced risks. The current work has not only
identified climatic thresholds and management decision points
based on expert opinions and a literature review to create
a decision framework, but it has also captured fish-farmers’
perceptions on CIS for aquatic food systems. Considering social
perceptions is key to success for building the resilience of a
particular system (Hossain et al., 2018). The absence of formal
aquaculture training for most of the farmers (Figure 3B) and
a lack of knowledge on climate variability impacts on aquatic
food systems (Figure 6) also indicate the need for capacity
development of fish famers alongside raising awareness about
weather impacts on aquatic food systems and, thus, productivity
(Kumar et al., 2020b). The potential of such awareness-raising
activities is highlighted by the higher number of informed
respondents in Barisal and Patuakhali, which are hotspots of
CIS research and development projects, such as agriculture
climate services for mungbean (e.g., CSISA—https://csisa.org/
csisa-bangladesh/). The higher frequency of climatic extreme
events in the south-west coastal region is also responsible for this
heightened awareness.
Besides, the low percentage of women respondents’
participation (2–8%) during the fish-farmers’ survey (Table 1)
recognizes the need of empowering women in small-scale
aquaculture decision-making in a substantive way. The low
participation of rural women respondents may be due to their
perception of fish farming as a full-time occupation of men
(Halim and Ahmed, 2006), social restrictions, and the inability
to access property, especially land that limits participation
in economic activities like aquaculture (Kruijssen et al.,
2018). Women’s engagement to secondary or supplementary
fish-farming activities, such as preparing feed, making and
maintaining fishing nets, repairing and maintaining other fishing
equipment, sorting of fingerlings, and post-harvest processing
resulted only in restricted decision-making roles so far (Quddus
et al., 2018).
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 12 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069
Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 10 | Decision framework based on temperature thresholds for four widely cultivated aquatic species in Bangladesh.
Decision frameworks and threshold developments are
conducted already for crop agriculture in Bangladesh (Krupnik
et al., 2018), but the effort has not, so far, been recorded for
aquaculture. Although only two fish and two crustacean species
are currently included in the decision framework, the work is
intended to spur additional research to include more species of
economic importance. The choice of lead time and the systematic
formulation of messages can make sure that available climate
information is used to develop usable advisories (Singh et al.,
2018). Most of the decisions are practical with a lead time of
3–5 days. A literature search of major aquaculture and climate
service journals, as well as an internet search, found limited
information upon which to develop species-specific decision
frameworks for aquaculture, so a discussion with comparable
studies is difficult. The decision framework presented here is
modeled on the decision frameworks developed for crops under
the Agvisely platform initiated by CIMMYT (https://www.
agvisely.com); however, it is widely endorsed and developed for
partner agencies of the Government of Bangladesh, such as the
Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council and the Department
of Agriculture Extension. The decision framework is expected to
be integrated into the platform to offer the CIS for aquaculture,
especially targeting extension agents connected to farmers.
Farmers showed preference for voice calls (or recorded voice
calls) for the climate service, but it can be prohibitively expensive
to deploy voice calls to millions of farmers, unless there is
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 13 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069
Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
FIGURE 11 | Decision framework based on rainfall thresholds for four widely cultivated aquatic species.
willingness to pay for such services. This situation suggests
a need for additional exploration on business models for
climate services.
When integrated into the Agvisely climate service system,
the decision framework will be able to trigger advisories for
aquaculture farmers e.g. for pond water quality maintenance
and feed management advice for tilapia once a weather forecast
indicates that water temperatures are expected to breach 32◦C
in the next 5 days. Accordingly, fish farmers who have tilapia in
their ponds at the grow-out phase can apply lime and use aerators
to balance the pH and dissolved oxygen level. They can pump
in additional water, perhaps using shallow or deep groundwater
tube wells (Appendix B). It is to be noted that area-specific
air and water temperature relationship will be integrated to
operationalize this service. Similar Tmax advisories are applicable
for the other three species, however, Tmax thresholds themselves
differ (Figure 10). Conversely, temperatures below 20◦C trigger
Tmin advisories for water quality management, feeding, and
harvesting modifications for tilapia. As a result, fish farmers
can use advisory information to make decisions to turn on
aerators, adjust pond water level, and apply lime to control pH.
Generally, these advisories will be applicable for other species as
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Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
well, depending on their Tmin thresholds. Similarly, if a rainfall
exceeds 88 mm/day during the grow-out phase of the selected
fish species, farmers are advised to consider protection measures
for fish enclosures. Fish farmers can heighten pond banks and
also use nets to prevent the fish from escaping (Appendix C).
For heavy rain (>44 mm/day), the decision framework suggests
options for pond water quality and feed management, including
using aerators to increase dissolved O2 or applying lime to reduce
water acidity. Farmers may also consider stopping feeding.
Moreover, for dry spells (<1 mm/day during the pre-monsoon
and post-monsoon seasons and <3mm during the monsoon
season for 5 consecutive days), fish farmers are advised to
consider increasing the water supply to their ponds or to do a
partial harvest along with reduced feeding.
Currently, the decision framework considers rainfall and
temperature thresholds for tilapia and rohu, saltwater shrimp,
and freshwater prawn species that trigger climate-sensitive
management decisions along with specific advisories at different
operations, such as fingerling collection and stocking, feeding,
using input materials, and harvesting. The temperature
thresholds trigger actions like aeration, irrigation, applying lime
or zeolite, feeding, or harvesting decisions. Similarly, rainfall
thresholds trigger advice on protection of fish and pond water
quality and feedmanagement, as well as pond watering decisions.
Pond preparation was also identified as a major climate-sensitive
decision, which is mainly affected by the onset of monsoon
and not currently included in the decision framework as it is
currently focused on the grow-out phase of the selected species.
The next step for developing the climate advisory is to embed
nationally endorsed weather forecasts from the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department with the decision framework and
deliver the advisories to farmers, likely through the Agvisely
platform. Once integrated to the platform, an evaluation on
the contribution of the CIS in preventing large-scale economic
damages as well as enhancing productivity and overall resilience
capacity of fish farmers will be carried out. It is expected that
the service can create large economic benefits to farmers who
are highly vulnerable to temperature and rainfall variability (Rao
et al., 2019).
In addition to practical implications, the present study
contributes to the emerging literature of climate services for
aquatic food systems. For instance, this study identifies the
sensitivity of different aquaculture operations to variability of
temperature and rainfall. The work also extends the current
understanding on using CIS for reducing short-term climate
risks in aquaculture operations by recognizing five climate-
sensitive management decision points and 26 potential advisories
in line with variability of temperature or rainfall. Moreover, the
comprehensive analysis based on three sources of information
(fish-farmers’ response, expert interviews, and literature review)
of this study presents a method for developing decision trees
based on specific climatic condition in relation to a particular
fish species for the grow-out phase. This innovative decision
support approach is to our knowledge the very first endeavor
to develop species-specific temperature and rainfall thresholds
based on CIS for South Asian aquaculture system to reduce
climate risks.
The limitation of the decision framework currently is that it
has included a limited number of species and identified only
grow-out phase climatic thresholds and related advisory for the
selected species. It could benefit from a horizontal expansion
to a number of other finfish and shellfish species to cater to
the needs of farmers cultivating these species and also vertical
extension to other stages of growth like breeding and spawning
to assist other value chain actors (i.e., hatchery managers).
Secondly, the farmers demanded a lead time of 7–14 days;
however, the advisories currently prescribed are limited to those
that can be implemented within 5 days of lead time, which is
highly reliable (appreciable skill in forecasting) in Bangladesh
context (Kumar et al., 2020a). As the forecast skill in Bangladesh
improves in the future (World Bank, 2018), additional actions
with extended lead time can be included. However, fish-farmers’
preference for 7–14 days of lead time is to secure resources
for executing the management advisory, such as equipment,
fertilizers or aqua-medicines, and labor. They need time to
hire pumps (if not owned) for irrigating the ponds during a
dry spell, arranging an aerator for maintaining water quality
during high temperatures, and organizing labor and necessary
implements for raising pond dikes or netting the pond during
heavy rain. Also fish-farmers’ preference for direct voice call
may have a connection with low smartphone penetration in the
rural areas than in the urban area of the country as well as with
additional expenditure for continuous internet connection in
using apps or other digital platforms (MoPTI, 2020). The current
work reports a valuable first step in delivering aquaculture
CIS to smallholder farmers that can provide clear actionable
information in response to forecasted local climate conditions
to manage climate risks and, thus, to reach the broader goals
of ensuring livelihood, food, and nutrition security. The work
mapped climate-sensitive decisions in aquaculture and developed
advisories specific to growth stage and also timelines for four
major species using multiple sources of information. If the efforts
to develop a CIS using the specified decision framework become
fruitful, it can offer significant positive benefits and act as a
template for similar services in other countries. The expected
outcomes are improved pond water quality, reduced disease
outbreak, reduced stress on fish physiology, good growth of
fish stock, reduced fish mortality rate, increased production,
and reduced climate-induced loss, all of which ensure better
profits for farmers and provide food and nutrition security to
the population. It is expected that the decision framework will
continue growing with more climate-sensitive decision points
and additional fish species, and that it will become a mature
climate service tool over time. Given the production of 2.4
million metric tons of fish in 2017–2018 from closed aquaculture
systems in Bangladesh, an increase in production by 1% can
provide 24,000 tons of fish that can cater to the yearly protein
needs of one million people (at a recommended allowance
of 60 g/day). This indicates the potential value creation and
contribution to food and nutritional security by operationalizing
an aquaculture climate service. The increased availability of fish
also disproportionately benefits poorer communities, given their
higher price elasticity of fish consumption. Given the challenges
in sustaining capture fisheries, there is an increasing dependence
Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 15 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069
Hossain et al. Climate Information Services for Aquaculture
on aquaculture for Bangladesh’s fish supply. Therefore, ensuring
climate smartness, especially higher production and resilience in
aquaculture systems, is of critical value to overall food system
resilience and sustainability. The provision of climate services can
act as a risk reduction intervention, and the reduced risk levels
act as a mechanism to increase investments in aquaculture by
small farmers. The creation of the reported decision framework
is a crucial step in realizing this promising opportunity.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The original contributions presented in the study are included
in the article/Supplementary Material, further inquiries can be
directed to the corresponding author/s.
ETHICS STATEMENT
Ethical review and approval was not required for this study with
human participants, in accordance with the local legislation and
institutional requirements.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
PH led the development of the paper, overall framing,
data collection, analysis, and writing the manuscript. TA-B
contributed in writing the discussion and conclusion section.
TK, MB, EM, and MP critically reviewed the manuscript which
went through multiple revisions by PR and TA-B. Finally, PR
coordinated and integrated the co-authors input for finalizing the
manuscript. All authors contributed to the article and approved
the submitted version.
FUNDING
This research was supported by the CGIAR research program on
Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS; https://
ccafs.cgiar.org/)-funded project entitled Capacitating Farmers
and Fishers to manage climate risks in South Asia (CaFFSA), by
ACToday-the first of Columbia University’s World Projects, and
by the USAID and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)-
supported Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA).
USAID, BMGF, and CCAFS do not necessarily endorse the
findings of this paper, and the results of this paper shall not be
used for advertising purposes.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found
online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.
2021.677069/full#supplementary-material
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Conflict of Interest: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the
absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a
potential conflict of interest.
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Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | www.frontiersin.org 17 June 2021 | Volume 5 | Article 677069