Outlook for fish to 2020: meeting global demand

Abstract

The seemingly inexhaustible oceans have proved to be finite after all. Landings of wild fish have leveled off since the mid-1980s, and many stocks of fish are fished so heavily that their future is threatened. And yet the world’s appetite for fish has continued to increase, particularly as urban populations and incomes grow in developing countries. Aquaculture—fish farming—has arrived to meet this increased demand. Production of fish from aquaculture has exploded in the past 20 years and continues to expand around the world. But will aquaculture be sufficient to provide affordable fish to the world over the next 20 years? And what environmental and poverty problems will aquaculture face as it expands? Using a global model of supply and demand for food and feed commodities, this report projects the likely changes in the fisheries sector over the next two decades given present trends. As prices for most food commodities fall, fish prices are expected to rise, reflecting demand for fish that outpaces the ability of the world to supply it. Alternative scenarios using different assumptions are also investigated.