Future scenarios for the supply and demand for fish in the Philippines: Simulations from the Asiafish model

Abstract

This paper explores future scenarios for the production, consumption, international trade and prices in fish of the Philippines through the year 2035. Future paths for output were obtained through expert consultations while those for consumption and international trade were generated by feeding the output projections into a multi-market model known as AsiaFish. The baseline scenario depicts a setting where total fish production in 2035 is about 5.5 million tons or about two times its levels in 2012. As a result, per capita consumption of fish will be about 37 kg/person in 2035 or about 20% higher than in 2012. Fish exports and imports in 2035 are also expected to be more than two times as much as in 2012. Alternative scenarios depict both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for the fish sector of the country. These scenarios were assumed to be influenced by perceptions on the impacts of climate change, adaptation to climate change, equity in the use of resources, and government policy