The WTO Negotiations on Fisheries Subsidies: a Political Economy Analysis

Abstract

The WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS), adopted in 2022 after more than two decades of negotiations, marks a historic milestone in global ocean governance. It is the first WTO agreement to explicitly integrate trade, environmental sustainability, and development objectives, and represents partial fulfillment of SDG 14.6. The initial agreement (Fish 1) disciplines subsidies linked to Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and overfished stocks, while negotiations continue on a second phase (Fish 2) to address capacity-enhancing subsidies that drive overcapacity and overfishing. This report examines the political economy of the AFS negotiations, drawing on 37 studies and 511 coded excerpts across six typology categories: Interests & Actors; Institutions & Rules; Knowledge, Ideas, Discourses & Norms; Strategies & Mechanisms for Change; Distributional Conflict & Equity; and External Drivers & Shocks. The analysis reveals that progress was shaped by the interplay of state interests, institutional constraints, strategic coalitions, and normative shifts toward sustainability. Key findings include: 1. Normative leverage from SDG 14.6, scientific evidence, and civil society campaigns reframed the negotiations from trade distortion to environmental correction. 2. Institutional complexity remains a barrier: enforcement relies on WTO dispute settlement mechanisms ill-suited for ecological mandates, and definitional ambiguity persists. 3. Equity challenges dominate unresolved issues: broad SDT provisions risk perpetuating inequalities, while targeted support for small-scale fishers and Indigenous Peoples is underdeveloped. 4. Incrementalism through an “early harvest” approach enabled agreement on IUU and overfished stocks but left critical gaps on overcapacity disciplines. 5. External drivers and shocks—including global sustainability commitments, environmental crises, and geopolitical/economic pressures—accelerated agenda-setting but exposed capacity constraints among developing Members. The AFS is a landmark achievement but remains incomplete. To fully realize its potential, future negotiations must clarify definitions, strengthen transparency, and design equitable pathways for reform. Promising directions include repurposing subsidies toward co-management and capacity-building for vulnerable groups, ensuring that efficiency, sustainability, and social equity objectives are met.