Projecting the future of aquaculture in Egypt under climate and socio-economic scenarios

Abstract

Aquaculture plays a vital role in Egypt’s food and nutrition security, producing more than 1.5 million tonnes of fish annually and accounting for approximately 80% of national fish production. Despite its importance, the sector is increasingly exposed to risks arising from climate change and socio-economic pressures, including population growth, rising food demand, land-use change, and evolving governance systems. In this study, we adapt the GOMAP model for land-based aquaculture systems to project aquaculture production potential (APP) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) across five key governorates: Behera, Damietta, Kafr El-Sheikh, Ismailia, and Port Said. The analysis integrates species distribution models for major farmed fish species in Egypt, machine learning–based projections of pond water temperature, and dietary requirements of cultured species. The results show that under SSP1–2.6, most regions are able to maintain or enhance their APP throughout the 21st century, with Ismailia and Port Said preserving nearly 100% of their production potential relative to the 2020s. Under SSP2–4.5, APP becomes increasingly uneven across regions; Behera and Kafr El-Sheikh experience declines of up to 79% and 74%, respectively, by the 2090s, while Port Said and Ismailia remain comparatively resilient. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, declines in APP are most severe and widespread, particularly for tilapia, with production potential falling below 50% in several regions by the end of the century. In contrast, mullet and catfish exhibit greater resilience to climatic stress across all scenarios. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies, including selective breeding, shading and aeration technologies, and spatial reallocation of aquaculture activities to climatically stable areas. The proposed modelling framework provides a valuable decision-support tool for promoting sustainable and climate-resilient aquaculture development in Egypt.