Impact evaluation of hilsa fishery restoration in Bangladesh: money well spent?

Abstract

The hilsa fishery, Bangladesh’s largest single-species fishery, generates over USD 3 billion annually, contributing 12% to annual fish production and supporting 2.5 million people. However, the growing human population and the associated demand for fish protein have led to overfishing of both adult and juvenile hilsa in the gill net fishery. In respons, the Department of Fisheries (DoF) and WorldFish implemented the ECOFISH-BD project (2015–2019), funded by USAID, to promote sustainable management practices. Despite the ecological and economic importance of hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), there is a significant gap in the literature regarding the economic evaluation of conservation initiatives. This study addrress that gap by examining the ECOFISH-BD project and assessing its return on investment (ROI) in terms of ecological and socio-economic outcomes. The research evaluates the historical context influencing hilsa production, assesses the project’s impact on stock recovery, and conducts a cost-benefit analysis to determine the ROI related to hilsa fishery management and community livelihoods. Using the difference-in-difference method, the study measured changes in income and assets, revealing a significant increase of 86.19% in income and 63.99% in overall assets in the intervention group compared to the baseline. Despite these positive outcomes, challenges such as unequal benefit distribution, power imbalances in the hilsa value chain, and the persistence of debt trap remain. While it is difficult to fully isolate the project’s effects from other external factors, the project has played a significant role in the recovery of hilsa stocks and the subsequent increase in catch volumes. Furthermore, the project demonstrates strong economic viability, evidenced by an internal rate of return of 32.8%. This study underscores the profitability and investment potential of small-scale fisheries, challenging common misconceptions and advocating for increased investment and institutional support to maximize long-term socio-economic and ecological benefits.