Climate risk assessment for fisheries and aquaculture: Data landscape, methods, and an analytical roadmap for 2026

Abstract

This report presents a practical, data-driven framework for assessing climate risks in fisheries and aquaculture, with a focus on Bangladesh, Kenya, and Zambia, where aquatic food systems are critical to food security, livelihoods, and economic development but increasingly exposed to climate stressors. It consolidates and evaluates available climate, hydrological, ecological, production, and socioeconomic datasets, and compares predictive, statistical, and integrated risk-based analytical approaches to identify those most viable under current data constraints. The report adopts an IPCC AR6–aligned integrated risk framework that combines climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to generate comparative insights without relying on precise outcome predictions. These methods provide the analytical foundation for developing country-level climate-risk profiles to inform adaptation planning, sectoral strategies, and climate investment in aquatic food systems.